Climate scientists warn against carbon offset loophole in EU 2040 target

Europe’s climate scientists have warned the European Commission not to rely on international carbon offsets to meet its 2040 emissions target, saying it would weaken the bloc’s credibility and risk undermining real efforts to cut emissions.

In a new report the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) said the EU should aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90 to 95 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, and crucially, do so without counting foreign carbon credits.

“There is no doubt that we have to reduce emissions very significantly, very rapidly,” said Ottmar Edenhofer, who chairs the advisory board. 

But using carbon credits to account for part of the reduction would pose a “huge risk” and make the target “less credible,” he told press on Monday (2 June). 

The recommendation directly challenges EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra’s push to include international carbon offsets in the EU’s 2040 climate target.

Germany has already made its position clear: in its 2025 coalition deal, it pledged to support a 90 percent cut only if up to three percent could come from foreign offsets.

French industry minister Marc Ferracci is backing an ambitious target of compensation measures for polluters.  

Projects that reduce deforestation often sell carbon credits, for example to consumers buying flight tickets or industries wanting to offset pollution. But the rejects the promise of foreign offsets.

Peer-reviewed research previously found that in 90 percent of cases no carbon is offset. 

“The evidence is clear: most international offsets aren’t worth the paper they’re written on and have done nothing to cut emissions,” said Michael Sicaud-Clyet, climate governance policy officer at WWF EU.

Rather than buy removals abroad, Edenhover said EU governments should scale domestic carbon removal technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CSS).

These technologies however, are controversial as well, with many projects stopping prematurely or underdelivering on their initial promise. "Removal methods face significant feasibility and scale-up challenges," the ESABCC also concludes.

The current capacity of the EU to remove carbon permanently through technological means "is miniscule," it adds, putting the burden of meeting the 2040 targets squarely on emissions reduction.

The scientific advice lands as EU leaders work to finalise the 2040 climate target by early July. 

That target will then be used to shape the bloc’s 2035 commitment to the UN — a key benchmark ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil this November.

This year, we turn 25 and are looking for 2,500 new supporting members to take their stake in EU democracy. A functioning EU relies on a well-informed public – you.